A Commentary – by Lawal Sale
“Those who play with fire will be consumed by it” – popular axiom
This age-long axiom has apparently been able stand the test of time, probably because it is certainly a universal truth.
Earlier this month (November), an unnecessary diplomatic spat between China and Japan, precipitated by the newly inaugurated Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, tore the peaceful coexistence of the two countries, just as China was celebrating 80 years of victory against the Japanese aggression and restoration of Taiwan.
In what looked like a premeditated action, PM Takaichi, during a Diet meeting in the parliament, made the now remark that now angered Beijing, saying that any Taiwan emergency, particularly those involving the use of military vessels from the mainland could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan.
In a simple term, Takaichi was saying that if anything happens to Taiwan militarily, Japan could come to the aid of Taiwan and defend it. The distance between Taiwan and Japan is just about 110 kilometres.
In fact, the first time Japan has expressed ambitions to intervene militarily in the Taiwan question; and the first time Japan has issued a threat of force against China, openly challenging China’s core interests.
Since the remarks, which China has swiftly described as “provocative, erroneous and incorrect”, diplomatic spat has occurred between Beijing and Tokyo. Meanwhile, China had been asking Japan to retract the statement and apologize, but Tokyo remained adamant and refused to retract the statement.
Some Historical Facts on Taiwan Question
Historically and legally, Taiwan belongs to China since the ancient times. The feud between China and Japan dated back to centuries when the Japanese empires repeatedly carried out military invasion of China, culminating in the colonisation of Taiwan. During the first Sino-Japanese war, China was defeated and was forced to make some concessions to Japan, including ceding Taiwan as its colony.
Similarly, in 1895, Japan forcibly annexed Taiwan via the Treaty of Shimonoseki, imposing a 50-year colonial authority on it, while suppressing the Taiwan people, plundering their resources and causing severe damage to its economy, culture and livelihoods.
In 1931, Japan again launched another war of aggression against the Chinese during the Second World War but this time around, Japan was defeated and China came out victorious, although more than 35 million lives were lost during the carnage. After the war, China did not ask for anything from Japan but return of Taiwan.
After the bloody struggle in 1945 and the declaration of victory by the Chinese against the fascist aggression, the vanquished Japan signed the instrument of surrender and formally accepted internationally recognized legal documents which stipulated Taiwan’s restoration to the motherland (China).
These documents were the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Proclamation. Since then, China recovered Taiwan and resumed its sovereignty over the province.
In spite of all that transpired centuries back, Takaichi surprisingly came up with some colonial hangover, attempting to distort history, while linking the Taiwan province of China to the so-called “security interests”, as a pretext for military intervention in China’s territory.
However, her moves, not only violated the sovereignty of China, but also severely violated the core content of the one-China principle in the China-Japan Joint Statement, as well as the Fourth Political Document between the two countries, which affirmed the commitment of the two sides as partners that should not pose a threat to each other. Clearly, Takaichi’s remarks on military intervention on Taiwan have perceptibly undermined the political foundation of China-Japan relations.
Furthermore, according to the joint statement of China and Japan after the expulsion of the Taiwanese representatives from United Nations in 1971, the two countries signed a declaration in 1972 in which the Government of the People’s Republic of China reiterated that Taiwan was an inalienable part of China’s territory.
The statement also affirmed that the Government of Japan fully understood and respected the stand of the Government of the People’s Republic of China, and it finally maintained its stand under Article 8 of the Postdam Proclamation.
In the same vein, the term, Cairo Declaration, shall be executed and the Japanese sovereignty shall be limited to the islands of Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku and other minor islands.
The Crossed Red Lines
Takaichi’s remarks apparently came as surprise. This is because over the decades, none of the prime minister’s predecessors has ever attempted to make such a far-reaching statement. All the past prime ministers of Japan have restrained themselves from delving into issues concerning the Taiwan question, while maintaining relatively cordial diplomatic and bilateral relations with China.
The prime minister’s remarks have blatantly ignored the fundamental principles of international law and trampled on the historical processes, which in effect treated Taiwan as a “country”.
Global affairs analysts are of the view that Takaichi’s provocative remarks have crossed the red lines in China-Japan relations, escalating tension between the two countries and in the South Eastern Asia in general. Some argued that if the statement was not retracted, it could breach the foundation of mutual trust between China and Japan, and may even trigger regional security concerns.
China, on the other hand, has been urging PM Takaichi to withdraw her remarks on Taiwan and maintain peace or face the consequences. In one of the regular press conferences organized by Mao Ning, China Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said that Beijing has been urging Tokyo “to immediately withdraw the erroneous remarks, reflect deeply and make corrections “.
Mao expatiated that the root cause of the diplomatic spat was obviously Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan and her refusal to withdraw the provocative statement, which has arbitrarily interfered in China’s internal affairs, while seriously violating the one-China principle and the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan.
Mao urged the Japanese side to take China’s solemn demands seriously, retract the erroneous remarks, and earnestly translate its commitments into real actions.
Analysts also described the crossing of the “red-line’ by Japan as brazen, unnecessary and saber-rattling. They emphasized that the viewpoint had reflected Japan’s militarist mindset, by suggesting military intervention in Taiwan, which had been internationally recognized as China’s territory. They also observed that the latest outburst was symptomatic of a political project aimed at dragging Japan back toward a dangerous trajectory.
Implications of a Prolonged Feud
The consequences of the spat are already manifesting. The diplomatic row appears to be worsening; economic blockade and people’s movements are at the lowest ebb since November 7 when PM Takaichi made the remarks. Japan’s trade and economy have been impacted, as trade, tourism, investment and broader people-to-people exchanges have all been affected within weeks.
China is Japan’s largest trading partner in the region accounting for about 20% of Japan’s total import and export. In 2024, Japan’s total trade with China exceeded $308 billion.
According to the China Ministry of Commerce, trade cooperation between the two countries have in the past two weeks ‘severely damaged’ as
Chinese authorities earlier issued a travel advisory to its citizens to halt trips to Japan and offered free refund of air tickets. Reports from Japanese tourism bureau showed an increasing inflow of Chinese tourists between July and September, 2025 with 7.5 million Chinese tourists visited Japan, contributing about $3.8 billion into Japan’s economy.
Another sector hit by the Chinese sanctions was the fishing industry where China ordered cecessation of all imports of Japanese insect products. Although fishing is not a particularly lucrative sector, this measure will affect workers in the Japanese fish industry.
With this enormous losses and damage to to the two South Asian giant’s relations, retraction of the statement is the best bet for peace and prosperity.
— Sale is Global Affairs Analysts based in Abuja (lawalmaida1@yahoo.com)
