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The Ukrainian, Russian and American officials will meet in Abu Dhabi Tuesday for talks on ending almost five years of conflict between Moscow and Kyiv – the first such negotiations in over nine months.
France announced last week that Europe will also send representatives to Abu Dhabi, with Kyiv’s allies worrying that US President Donald Trump plans a deal on the continent’s security with Moscow and will force a de-facto defeat on Ukraine.
However, on Monday morning Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that peace talks would be trilateral, not including European officials. Peskov said the Ukrainians and the US both had their own communication channels with European counterparts.
Here’s what you need to know about the Abu Dhabi talks – and how the various parties are feeling.
Ukrainians: Pressured
Russia has pummelled Ukraine as another winter of war approaches, devastating its already vastly destroyed energy sector and increasing deadly strikes.
At the same time, Ukraine has faced mounting pressure from Trump, with the US leader criticizing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and striking a diesel deal with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
Kyiv and its European allies have watched the White House appear to pivot towards Moscow this year, and were alarmed last week by Trump floating a deal with Russia involving “all of Europe”.
Zelenskyy warned against a “Yalta 2.0” ahead of the talks, referring to Western leaders dividing Europe with the USSR in 1945.
He also said Russia intensified attacks in the days leading up to negotiations to “lay the groundwork for putting pressure on Ukraine’s position”.
Kyiv’s delegation will be led by intelligence chief Rustem Umerov and will also include the outspoken Zelenskyy aide Kyrylo Budanov.
Ukrainians are “very pessimistic” on the peace talks and moves by Trump’s administration, said political expert Volodymyr Fesenko.
“We are forced to adapt to the American strategy,” he said, adding that Kyiv will try to push for partial or local ceasefires.
A recent ceasefire in the Kherson region was “a very positive precedent”, Fesenko said, predicting Kyiv will likely push for more “de-escalation of the war through such local truces”.
The Kremlin has so far refused broader ceasefires.
Russians: Emboldened
Moscow’s forces have been grinding westwards, but have been unable to seize the prized Donetsk region in more than four years of fighting.
Putin has refused face-to-face talks with Zelenskyy, and Russia has maintained its position that its “special military operation” in Ukraine is aimed at protecting Russian-speaking populations, countering Western security threats, and reshaping the European security order.
On the eve of the conflict, in December 2021, Moscow issued an “ultimatum” for NATO to roll back troops from eastern Europe.
Over the weekend, the Kremlin announced its negotiating team that included, for the first time, Sergei Ryabkov, who put forward the ultimatum.
The team is being led by Putin’s aide Vladimir Medinsky, and also includes diplomat Mikhail Galuzin, spy chief Igor Kostyukov and army general Yuri Zhygarlovsky.
“It’s quite a serious team that can talk about a spectrum of issues – for the military side, solving territorial issues and security guarantees… and also European security,” said Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
Moscow’s stated position is the 2021 ultimatum but “we don’t know if that is still relevant and where the red lines are – it can only be established during the talks”.
Americans: Hopeful
Previously sidelined by the Iran war, the US-led talks are resuming after Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and business partner Steve Witkoff went to both Moscow and Kyiv.
After holding an unscheduled meeting last week with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who was at the White House for talks with Ukrainian officials, Trump touted a “very big” deal with Russia that will “involve all of Europe”.
He later also said that Ukraine will “end up with a little bit (of a) different shape”.
Kushner and Witkoff have been accused by critics of being soft on Russia and the US media have reported that the Americans are pushing giant back-door business deals with Moscow.
Europeans: Worried
Europe’s role in the talks is unclear. EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said “the EU will be present alongside our partners”.
An EU official said that national security officials for the bloc, NATO, France, Germany and the UK would be on site – although how they would be involved is unclear.
The Kremlin insisted the talks will still be held in the Russia-Ukraine-US format while Zelenskyy said he coordinated his position with the EU ahead of the talks.
Most European leaders have had either no or very limited contact with Putin since 2022. But last month, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store held a rare call with Putin, calling their talks “frank and substantive”.
Source(s): AFP
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